Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, has been picked as the winner of the upcoming presidential election for the third time in a row.

Nigerians are getting ready for the February 25 presidential election, which is only nine days away.

The third poll in the series was completed in the first half of February 2023 and follows two earlier polls carried out (using the exact same methodology) in September and December 2022, according to the survey commissioned by the Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI polls Limited (NOIPolls). We believe the first widely reported national poll released in connection with the 2023 Presidential elections was our baseline Presidential Poll, which was followed by a Bloomberg poll published on September 28.

The foundation stated that it is important to note that NOIPolls’ methodology is nearly identical to that used in prior presidential polls they conducted for us in 2011, 2015, and 2019.

“In all those prior presidential polls, the front-runner that was predicted by our polls ultimately prevailed in the elections, despite the fact that a sizable portion of voters remained undecided and/or refused to declare their preference. In our numerous governorship polls conducted in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2022, we used the exact same methodology, and it generally held up well. We are aware that the 2023 presidential election will differ significantly from previous ones in a number of ways, including; 1) a longer campaign season; 2) the presence of four major candidates rather than two; and 3) increased voter fervor.

By conducting three separate polls with sample sizes of 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 in December 2022, we went above and beyond to expand the methodology in our second presidential poll in this series. We were able to confirm that (as expected) the results did not change significantly. Despite this, we chose 2,000 as our sample size for our third and final poll in February 2023 rather than the We used a 1,000 sample size for the surveys that were released in September and December 2022.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are both in second place, according to the results of our third and final poll conducted in February 2023. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is still in the lead. The lone outsider was revealed to be Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). With 21% of registered voters saying they would support Peter Obi if the presidential election were held today, and 13% saying they would support Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who came in second, Asiwaju Bola Obi is currently in the lead. With 10%, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar came in third, followed by Rabiu Kwankwaso in fourth place.

It was noted in the report that while Peter Obi’s 8% lead at this point is significant, it is insufficient to set him apart from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10%, and 3% given the sizable pool of voters who are still undecided or who have refused to reveal their preferred candidate.

Undecided voters make up a staggering 23% of the electorate, while 30% of voters prefer to remain anonymous. According to the report, 27% of registered female voters are still unsure of their vote, compared to 18% of registered male voters.

The foundation concluded that, using its tried-and-true sampling methodology since 2011, the 2023 presidential elections are too close to call, regardless of who was present.

The foundation warned that the undecided/refused vote was still too high (in early February 2023) to be disregarded, even though Peter Obi had been the clear favorite this time. “We had anticipated that by delaying our third and final poll until early February 2023, the Undecided Vote would collapse. It is true that the increase in voters who withhold the name of their preferred candidate has more than offset the decrease in the Undecided Vote. We believed that a lengthy campaign period would result in different candidates taking turns to lead the field when we conducted our first baseline poll in September 2022. That has not happened. This protracted race has been surprisingly boring.